Economists at Goldman Sachs estimate that the US unemployment rate, which was 10 per cent in December 2009 from 5 per cent at the start of the recession in December 2007, will peak by the middle of 2011, before dropping back to 10.5 per cent by the end of 2011.

Industry insiders add that reports of largescale abuses of the H1-B system has made companies go slow on visa provisioning. Fraudulent H1-B applications helped the anti-outsourcing groups gain in strength. Murthy, however, counters, "Frauds do happen but the current trend has more to do with fewer companies ready to sponsor H1-Bs."

"Most of the returnees are in the mid and junior levels, and employed in the IT industry. TeamLease has received around 3,000 NRI CVs so far and placed a significant number of them. Most of them have been placed in permanent jobs, This is an evolving situation, and hence, it is difficult to know the exact number of CVs received by Indian recruitment firms so far," said Ashok Reddy, managing director, Teamlease Staffing Solutions.

According to a senior HR manager, "Assuming 20,000 NRIs go back, these jobs go to the Americans in theory. That said, many Indians on H1-B have also received visa extensions. Once the US economy and market demand rebounds, the displaced visa holders will be welcome again. Just that they will have to file fresh applications and re-enter following a new visa stamp or a new employer."

"Not just consultants, but many of the creme de la creme of the IT industry are returning. And, salaries have picked up in India. This has been an attraction for NRIs, as they will have access to a far better lifestyle with the salaries on offer in India today. Besides, domestic helps and other day-to-day support systems are available readily," said Kris Laxmikant, who has been working to place returning H1-B visa holders at CXO levels (an industry term for positions starting with the word `Chief') in different IT companies.

Calendar 2010 is expected to create around 50,000 fresh IT/ITeS jobs in India. A 15 per cent increment in hiring volumes, primarily in IT services, is expected in the first two quarters of 2010, while growth could cross 20 per cent or double towards the third and fourth quarters.

Vijay Gummadi, head of Hyderabad-based Carz, a multi-brand car service franchisee network, recently hired a engineer returnee. "I am getting quite a few CVs from consultants wanting to return to India or looking for opportunities here," he said. Gummadi, who worked in America's automobile hub, Detroit, for over a decade, himself returned to India over a year ago. "The quality of work being done out of India has undergone a sea change. It is no longer just support services that are being provided out of India. Hence, returning to India is rewarding, even in the midst of an economic downturn," Gummadi said.

The homeward trend is only accelerating. Since 2008, the number of people seeking to return to India has risen three-fold or more, according to recruiters. Combined with Obama's fulminations on American jobs moving from Buffalo to Bangalore, not to mention retribution planned against companies outsourcing "American jobs", there is no 21-gun salute awaiting Indian H1-B visa holders.